First Quarter 2011 Real Estate Market Review

With 25 percent of 2011 already in our rear-view mirror, let’s review the first quarter in real estate.

Inventory has been climbing over the last three months; we started the year with 73 homes for sale in Alamo and now we have 94. In Danville, we have grown from 154 to 216, and in Blackhawk inventory has grown from 34 to 48.

However, homes have been selling at a good clip, curbing the inventory. Or so it seems. As I review the statistics, I’m surprised to learn that the sales for this first quarter of 2011 are not as strong as last year’s first quarter.

Specifically, in Alamo, 19 homes sold in Q1 2011, compared to 35 homes sold in the first quarter of 2010. In Danville, 130 homes sold in Q1 2010 and only 125 in Q1 2011. Blackhawk saw an increase, but a tiny one: from 22 sales last year to 23 this year.

Median prices have dropped in Alamo and Danville, but median sale prices in Blackhawk rose from Q1 2010 to Q1 2011. In Alamo, the sales were swifter (23 days on market this year compared to 53 median days on market last year) and median price went from $1,050,000 to $910,000.

In Danville, median days on market was 33 in 2011 but only 19 last year, and median sales price was $780,000 last year and $731,000 this year.

In Blackhawk, while median days on market grew from 55 to 106, median sales price increased from $866,000 last year to $1,100,000 in Q1 this year.

It seems the statistics don’t match my “gut” feeling that our market has been ticking along nicely.

I reached out to a few other agents ... and I’m not alone, those that I checked with in my informal poll are feeling a certain energy in this market.

One realtor I spoke to from Empire said, ”The market feels fairly strong and inventory still seems low, although some agents I spoke to today at my Broker’s Open feel it’s slowing down and they are not getting a lot of showings. I think there are pockets and certain price ranges that are getting more activity that others.”

She also pointed out that the market may be transitioning.

Tom Kortizija of Sotheby's commented that, "There are certainly indicators that the market is heating up, but only in very specific neighborhoods and especially in the market segment of $700K to $900K. I think buyers and sellers alike are wondering if spring will awaken the confidence necessary for a broader housing recovery.  Specific properties that mix location, condition and value seem to shine and buyers are willing to come off the sidelines and participate when they truly find what meets their needs. They continue to believe that they can and should wait for the exact combination of features and value."

How long will they wait, that is the question. Many buyers have already come off the fence to make their purchase. The buyers for my pending sale (pictured) have been renting nearby, waiting for the right property and timing. The pending data promises more closed sales soon to come: we have 40 sales pending in Alamo, 134 in Danville, and 17 in Blackhawk.

That means Q2 is off and running, so let’s hope the good news continues.